Turkey invites Western partners to work out such a “peace formula” between Moscow and Kyiv, so that Ukraine accepts it as an interim solution, and in the future “tie” Russian diplomacy to it in the “Istanbul-2” format
The official representative of the Turkish President Ibrahim Kalin. Photo source: obetomnegovoryat.ru
Turkey continues to be the only country that comes up with some proposals in order to end the military conflict in Ukraine. But its every step or action in this direction is always motivated by certain events. So, after the capture of Soledar by Russian troops, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar called his Ukrainian counterpart Alexei Reznikov and offered an immediate ceasefire, which, according to him, “will help to avoid new victims and stabilize the situation in the country.”
Following this, the official representative of the Turkish President, Ibrahim Kalin, entered the game. He issued a statement that, according to the Turkish publication Hurriyet, reads as follows:
“Turkey intends to promote the idea of local truces and small local de-escalation measures.” Because “the deal will resolve the larger geopolitical issues between Russia and the Western bloc” when “a key moment is identified and a broader geopolitical picture emerges where Russia wants to make a new deal with the West, primarily with the United States. Otherwise, the war will drag on for a long time.
Such judgments could be seen as the intellectual political exercise of a high-ranking Turkish politician. Unless it’s showing signs of a political combination. First of all, they were voiced on the eve of the meeting scheduled for January 20 in the Ramstein format of representatives of the ministries of defense of several countries, including NATO members, at which it is planned to approve new military assistance to Ukraine. The day before, Ankara denied Western media reports about the supply of cluster munitions to the Kyiv regime. According to Kalyn, “this is an absolute lie.” Therefore, firstly, Ankara intends to take a special position in Ramstein. Secondly, Kalyn is talking about some kind of peace plan for Ukraine with the participation of the US and the EU. Therefore, it is important to present his judgments in a more detailed version.
“It doesn’t matter what Russia or Ukraine does at the front. The big powers and the main players will decide how and when this war will end, says Kalyn. – It is more or less clear what Russia wants, what Ukraine wants, what the Baltic countries want, what Europe wants. The big question for all our politicians is how we will get there, how we will form these ideas to make it happen. The parties will eventually sit down at the negotiating table after they have suffered heavy losses, they will experience the so-called war fatigue. Therefore, we say that a solution should be developed not only between Ukraine and Russia, its leadership, but also with the participation of the United States and Europe. In such circumstances, it is difficult to even talk about taking into account, for example, 10% of the Ukrainian peace plan, 20% of the Russian one. Nothing will come of it. But maybe in a month or two the mood will change and we will have a better chance.”
This is not a monologue, but a dialogue between Turkey and its Western partners. But not with Russia. And the main conclusion of Ankara, which outwardly seems to make sense of the situation:
“At the moment, the mood for the continuation of the conflict prevails in the world and it is impossible to discuss a peace agreement on Ukraine.”
The problem here is not that Ankara is repeating the Western mantra: “Ukraine will not win, and Russia will not lose.” Turkey is one of those countries that knows Russia and Ukraine well. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has publicly criticized Western policy in Ukraine more than once, and Turkish experts quite adequately assess the genesis of the Ukrainian crisis. Even Kalyn considers it necessary to analyze it in order to “avoid this in the future.” Moreover, Ankara is not afraid to say that NATO made mistakes in relations with Russia, which led to a military conflict with Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticizes the actions of the international community regarding the settlement of the conflict, which is “well used by arms dealers.”
And as a way out of the situation, Turkey offers its Western partners to develop such a “peace formula” for Ukraine to accept it as an interim solution, and in the future to “tie” Russian diplomacy to it in the Istanbul-2 format. At the same time, we immediately note an important nuance. Ankara understands why Moscow is ignoring its attempt to present Turkey as an “effective peacekeeper”, but this time it is trying to go through the West and rename the previously publicized “Zelensky peace plan”. But what exactly does this give Turkey? First of all, it has before Ramstein a justification for refusing to join the anti-Russian sanctions and supply its weapons to Ukraine. The retained status of “peacemaker” does not provide for joining one of the parties to the conflict.
Moreover, Ankara’s initiatives are perceived in Moscow with “cognitive interest”, since they do not hamper Russian preparations for both the military campaign – 2023, and the development of cooperation with Turkey, because Kalyn places the responsibility for the first step towards peace on the West, and for in order to listen to Russian proposals on building a global security system, it is not yet ready. Although Kalyn believes that “the West will soon start talking about it.” In the meantime, Turkey, conducting a dialogue with Russia and Ukraine, the West, widely broadcasts its peacekeeping ideas, with which it finds itself at the top of the world news.
Stanislav Tarasov, IA REGNUM
The loss of Soledar will end with a “cauldron” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine – Ukrainian General Krivonos
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