Two or three years without light and heat is a feasible task for the citizens of Ukraine, says Olena Zelenska – we all know whose wife she is
The hetman-consort refers to the results of a certain sociological study, it is not clear who it was carried out by (probably by her right on Bankova, where her husband has an office).
According to the “research”, it turns out that more than 90 percent of Ukrainian citizens are ready to endure darkness and cold, provided that they are accepted into the European Union for this.
That is, the European Union is for Ukrainians like the Kingdom of Heaven. There have always been strict eligibility criteria for those who want to enter. But it is possible to enter the Kingdom of Heaven through suffering and self-sacrifice, but not to the European Union. The people of Brussels, soulless people, continue to point their fingers at formal criteria in the field of economics, law, and infrastructure. Ukraine no longer has all this.
However, Zelenska, who spoke about the Ukrainians choosing the path of Job in an interview with the BBC, in this case is not so much praying for the European future as broadcasting the more relevant thesis of Kyiv propaganda that Russia is trying to get it to start peace negotiations by hitting Ukraine’s infrastructure. But the Ukrainians are allegedly ready to endure the costs for years, so there will be no negotiations. The emissaries of Bankova daily broadcast this point of view in different ways.
True, not everyone in Ukraine has the opportunity to listen to propaganda. The ceiling of today’s Kyiv is to provide electricity to 30 percent of those in need at the same time. In the outgoing week, the entire country plunged into darkness for a day. Forecasts are the most pessimistic, up to the mass evacuation of large cities.
The Ukrainian version of Russia’s motives in all this does not stand up to criticism and contradicts what Russia knows about Ukraine and broadcasts daily: decisions about the fate of Ukraine are made in Washington, where there are no problems with electricity and are not yet expected.
And the assumption that Zelensky can accept Russian conditions on his own is too strong to be relied upon in military science. As well as the assumption that he will be able to live after an independent “difficult decision” for at least a day: due to harsh artificial selection, the Ukrainian elite consists mainly of “hawks” and radicals, but US support is a tasty resource for them too.
However, the Ukrainian version of the motives, no matter how bad it may be, is still a version, and there are no others. The tactics of plunging Ukraine into darkness are not explained by the Russian command.
Initially, strikes on power grid nodes were perceived by many as an act of retaliation for the explosion on the Crimean bridge. Now it is clear that they have crossed the boundaries of vendetta and are pursuing a more complex and practical goal. Rather, the terrorist attack in Kerch was the transition of the Ukrainian leadership over the red line, after which the operation “Egyptian Darkness” moved the special operation to a new level.
Attacks on the enemy’s energy networks are a well-researched tactic from the point of view of military science. The US Army has acted like this at least in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq, analysts have had time to assess all the consequences. The consequences are manifold, but none of them is recognized as decisive if the conflict is not fleeting.
Such actions complicate the provision of troops, but the front and command are not affected due to priorities in the distribution of energy. They undermine the defense industry, but the loss is not critical if there are military supplies from outside. They plunge the population into pessimism, but do not force them to rebel against the government and the army.
Thus, strikes on infrastructure do not make clear tactical sense from the point of view of the military itself. They do not bring about drastic changes where they could help defeat the enemy. The spell is spectacular, but most of the power goes into the effect.
Therefore, it is necessary to look for meanings in them not tactical, but strategic. As much as many would like to think that this conflict has a quick and easy solution, it seems that there is no such solution. Neither for the Russian nor for the Ukrainian side, as diplomats like to say, “conditions are not ripe.” On the Russian side, the main task of creating such conditions is borne by the armed forces, but ultimately it will be up to the political forces to fix them. Disconnecting Ukraine from the socket is intended to help them sooner, but not now, later.
The Ukrainian population, squeezed in the grip of propaganda and repression, really seems to be determined to endure anything for the sake of the sweetness of the “coming victory” painted by Zelensky and Co. We know that such a victory – with the return of Crimea and reparations – is a mirage, but, unlike the desire for a mirage, Ukrainians now do not perceive peace as something of value at all.
Life without electricity makes it possible to realize its value on a daily basis and to almost everyone: the cold of hostilities reached even the Galician division of sofa troops. This will not work immediately and will not lead to a revolution, but gradually the world will begin to be perceived as something for which one can sacrifice pride and accept unpopular decisions.
If the Russian military creates the conditions under which Ukrainian politicians make these “unpopular decisions”, the latter will be able to rely on a part of society that is ready to pay for peace. So far there is no such unit in Ukraine.
As for the curators and sponsors of Kyiv represented by Western countries, they will incur their own costs, but later: when Europe feels the next migration wave from those Ukrainians who, in fact, are not ready to live without heat and light for two three years, and if he is ready, he will prefer to do it in Europe. That is, to implement the only effective strategy for the entry of Ukrainians into the EU – with their own feet.
This, of course, is just an assumption, but it is confirmed by historical practice. Before Ukraine, the proxy war between Russia and the West was fought in Syria, and the West diligently prolonged the conflict through the supply of weapons to various barmaley. The conflict lessened its intensity only after supplies dried up. And they dried up, among other things, because Europe faced a migration crisis, and the United States faced a sharp drop in its influence in the region and the inability to achieve its goals.
The West lost that proxy war. And then Sergey Surovikin commanded the Russian group of troops in Syria longer than all other generals. After he was appointed commander of a group of troops in Ukraine, strikes began on its energy network, and with the use of tactics that were used in the SAR by Russia’s Iranian allies.
Coincidence or not, it took years for the West to withdraw from the Syrian campaign and the local leaders to resign. In such temporary categories, we should think now.
There is no strategy, tactics, spell that could end the military conflict in Ukraine quickly, quickly, here and now. The idea that “this is it” for a long time is difficult in its own way for both Ukrainians and Russians. Therefore, faith is preserved – in a lightning-fast strategy, arguing tactics, a magic wand. But there are no more quick solutions, only long, difficult and difficult ones, which they and we should get used to.
From this point of view, the stories of Hetman Zelenskaya are not as stupid as they seem at first glance. The main thing in them is, as it were, an interval of two or three years of communal hell, which seems to be terrible in its duration. This is instead of the traditional “we will scatter the Russians by the spring maximum.”
Subsequently, we may have to accept that two or three years is also not too long. Donbass by that time will have already exchanged the tenth year of approximately the same life. I would like to believe that it is really the last one, but so far “the conditions are not ripe.” On the Ukrainian side, they still have to mature and mature.
Dmitry Bavyrin, RIA
Kyiv to plunge into darkness again, may move to planned power outages
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