The decisive battle for Kherson is canceled

The United States intends to continue to use the human resources of Ukraine as “combat slaves” against Russia

The decisive battle for Kherson is canceled

Militarily, the position of the Russian group on the right bank of the Dnieper was indeed not easy. The Dnieper from Kakhovka to Kherson and further to the mouth is not just two banks of a wide river. The left bank is about 10 kilometers wide floodplain, floodplains, a continuous array of lakes, thickets of reeds, crossed along and across by numerous channels and eriks.

In addition to the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, another crossing over the floodplain is an embankment dam from Oleshki to the Antonovsky bridge. That is, ferry vehicles have to overcome not 1-2 km, as in the classical crossing of the wide Dnieper, but 15-20 km (navigable channels are winding, do not go in a straight line), which reduces the capacity of ferry crossings by an order of magnitude.

There is another problem in anticipation of winter. This is ice. In recent years, he has been a rare guest in the lower reaches of the Dnieper, but there are no guarantees against the whims of the weather. And freezing on the Dnieper could really become a disaster. On the one hand, due to its rarity in the Kherson region, there are very few icebreakers here, on the other hand, there is almost never such a thickness of ice that even light vehicles can pass through it. In this case, the right bank of the Kherson region would indeed be completely cut off from the “mainland” and, possibly, for several months.

As we noted, Biden’s national security aide Jake Sullivan, who visited Kyiv on November 4, suggested that Zelensky demonstrate “openness” to negotiations with Russia. And at the same time he demanded to launch an attack on Kherson in the coming days in order to coincide with its capture by the G20 summit in Indonesia, which will begin on November 15 and at which the “Ukrainian issue” will apparently be central.

However, the picture of a Ukrainian military victory did not emerge: Russian troops withdrew to the left bank in an organized manner, while the enemy remained in the same positions as in April. If you call a spade a spade, this is a serious concession that allows Zelensky to make peace on a “victorious wave”.

At the same time, no intermediate agreements such as another “Minsk” will suit Russia – an agreement is needed that normalizes the situation around Ukraine and bilateral relations, and the resolution of territorial disputes leaves for the future with the conservation of the existing line of demarcation.

However, the patriots are coming out to demand a complete victory from Zelensky, and the United States wants to continue to use the human resources of Ukraine as “combat serfs” against Russia. Zelensky’s “peacefulness” would have been reduced to a readiness to negotiate “without preconditions,” that is, for an infinitely long time.

The position of Russia was entrusted to be announced by Maria Zakharova: “We are still open to negotiations. We have never abandoned them, we are ready to conduct them, of course, taking into account the realities that are developing at the moment.

And from Washington it sounds: “The settlement of the conflict in Ukraine is possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops.” This is Biden. Sullivan echoes his figurehead boss: “Moscow could end the conflict tomorrow if it wanted to. We look forward to the negotiation process in the future. Our President Joe Biden just said that this war needs to end with an agreement, but we want it to be President Zelensky’s prerogative to determine the conditions under which he will sit down at the negotiating table, which include respect for borders and recognition of responsibility for what the Russian side has done.” (highlighted by me. – I.S.)

And against the background of what the Americans want, the most striking marker is Zelensky’s refusal to participate in the summit in Bali immediately after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson. For Ukraine, which is not a permanent member of the “club of twenty”, an invitation even as a guest is an event (especially if a conceited actor is invited). The Americans had to go to great lengths to secure a formal invitation from the host country of the summit (Indonesia), but the invitation turned out to be sham: it was made in tandem with Zelensky’s prearranged refusal to travel.

The absence of Zelensky also means the formal absence of the very possibility of a substantive conversation on Ukraine – the impossibility of the American demand that “it is President Zelensky’s prerogative to determine the conditions under which he will sit down at the negotiating table.”

So what price will Ukraine and its inhabitants pay for a hypothetical peace?

Igor Skripka, FSK

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