The Swedish online publication Nya dagbladet in September published a “secret” memorandum of the American analytical corporation RAND, which is closely associated with the Pentagon and the American military-industrial complex, dated January 2022.
The document openly talks about US plans for Europe: the dismantling of its (mainly German) economy “due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine” and the involvement of Germany in the conflict. The document is a detailed analysis of Europe’s inevitable economic collapse as a result of the US-inspired Russian attack on Ukraine.
Nya dagbladet, citing the RAND report, reports that the United States has long recognized the inability to survive the current economic crisis without outside support. The uncontrolled emission of funds since 2020 and the policy of quantitative easing have led to a sharp increase in the US public debt and a cash surplus in the economy. The only available resource source for the American economy is the economy of European countries connected with the USA.
The RAND report notes that Germany’s growing independence, backed up by the limitless available energy resources from Russia, as well as French electricity, could lead to a political consensus between Germany and France, joined by Italy and other countries of Old Europe.
If such a scenario succeeds, Old Europe, probably drawing closer to Russia, will grow from a junior partner into a competitor to the United States, capable of resisting the Eastern European countries oriented towards the United States.
RAND points out that Washington’s aggressive foreign policy towards the crisis in Ukraine, which has been going on since the events of 2014, is aimed at forcing Kyiv to launch massive strikes against the Donbass, which will invariably make it impossible to implement the Minsk agreements and push Russia to military intervention. The purpose of such actions is to accuse the Russian Federation of aggression, to impose large-scale sanctions against it, which have been prepared for a long time, and also to divide Europe, involving it in the Ukrainian crisis, which is obviously “harmful” for the economy.
“The only possible way to ensure that Germany refuses to supply Russian energy is to involve both sides in a military conflict in Ukraine. <…> Our [American] ongoing actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia”, the RAND report says.
The report notes that the stoppage of Russian supplies will lead to the collapse of the German economy and enterprises in the main sectors – in petrochemistry, metallurgy, mechanical engineering. Losses could amount to 200-300 billion euros. This will inevitably lead to the collapse of the entire European industry, an increase in unemployment (about 400 thousand jobs will “burn out” only in Germany) and the migration of educated Europeans to the United States. This will help the US economy generate $7-9 trillion in additional revenue in the medium term, RAND notes.
Despite this, many economic experts do not agree with RAND’s conclusions, noting that the US-inspired catastrophe in Europe will only worsen their position in the world. For example, leadership in the manufacturing sector has already passed to China, and India will soon displace the United States in third place. The flow of capital from Europe will not save the dollar financial system either: the beginning defaults of large European banks will cause a chain reaction of bankruptcies, including in the United States.
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