Freezing Germans will have no time for Ukraine

Freezing Germans will have no time for Ukraine

The latest news from Germany looks like an unfunny joke: to reduce energy dependence on Russia, it was proposed… to Germans to dig in rubbish bins

These are not just any guys who have the right to do this, but “rubbish detectives” specifically authorised by the government, whose task is to find among the rubbish heaps wastes that can potentially be used to make gas.

It is not, however, a figment of the local Petrosian’s imagination. According to DPA, such an initiative was in fact proposed by André Baumann, the deputy minister of environment of the German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg.

But jokes are jokes, but the situation on the energy front in Germany is really bad. So bad, in fact, that Merkel, who replaced the conservatives, even under ecological slogans, the rainbow coalition with the green party folded up and shelved all the decarbonisation projects until a better time.

And now the news that the first of the coal-fired power plants put on hold for the sake of the “green agenda” has been reactivated, is already on the front pages of the newspapers. The reason is as simple as the seven kopecks together – a shortage of Russian gas.

Against this background Germany is going to stop buying Russian coal from 1 August and will wave goodbye to Russian oil on 31 December. The reasons are political. Berlin makes no secret of the fact that they would like to make the same gesture to Russian blue fuel, but there is a problem – they want to, but they cannot. So Jörg Kukis, the Chancellor’s economic aide, confined himself to a somewhat reductive statement:

“The plan is to find solutions to the rejection of Russian gas”.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg News Agency has given Germany three months to prevent a gas apocalypse.

“Even though it’s the height of summer, Berlin has little time left to avoid an energy shortage this winter. The shortage in Germany could become unprecedented, as no other country in Europe is at such risk as the region’s largest economy, where almost half of all buildings are heated with blue fuel,” the publication said.

Interestingly, among the reasons that caused such a powerful crisis, Bloomberg does not mention the main one – the fact that the elites of the FRG went along with the US and got involved in anti-Russian hysteria, a sanctions war and suicidal for Germany, given the degree of dependence of its economy on energy supplies from Russia support for the Ukrainian regime.

And the many harbingers of the coming of the furbearer can be seen without even reading the German media or listening to the speeches of politicians, as they say, with the naked eye. The presidential palace in Berlin is no longer lit up at night, municipalities across the country are one by one cutting hot water supplies and preparing heating shelters to protect people from the cold.

All in all, preparations for the most costly winter in the history of modern Europe are in full swing, and the mood of the population is on the brink of pessimism and panic.

The German industry is also paying the bill for the anti-Russian sanctions. It is estimated that Germany will need €5 billion to support its economy because of rising oil and gas prices. BASF, the world’s largest chemicals company, has already cut production of ammonia needed for fertilisers due to falling profitability on the back of rising gas prices.

But the biggest blow will be felt by ordinary Germans.

According to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, nearly one in four Germans has slipped into “energy poverty,” meaning that rising utility bills are pushing them to cut other items of household expenditure.

Such sentiments at the height of summer risk leaving notions of Germany as the main economic engine of the European Union far behind. And electricity rationing and the inevitably ensuing social unrest may bury the Scholz cabinet faster than a sluggish sex scandal with high profile Esdek parties.

Under such circumstances, Russia, now declared the main enemy, becomes the only candidate for saviour. The IMF has calculated that Germany risks losing 4.8 per cent of GDP if Gazprom cuts off supplies, and the Bundesbank has estimated the possible damage at €220 billion.

“Our economic system is at risk of collapse. If we are not careful, Germany could be at risk of deindustrialisation,” Michael Kretschmer, the Saxon prime minister from the Christian Democrats, predicts grimly.

Generally speaking, preparations for the most expensive winter in the history of modern Europe are in full swing, and the mood of the population is on the brink of pessimism and panic.

The German industry is also paying the bill for the anti-Russian sanctions. It is estimated that Germany will need €5 billion to support its economy because of rising oil and gas prices. BASF, the world’s largest chemicals company, has already cut production of ammonia needed for fertilisers due to falling profitability on the back of rising gas prices.

But the biggest blow will be felt by ordinary Germans.

According to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, nearly one in four Germans has slipped into “energy poverty”, meaning that rising utility bills will force them to cut other items of household expenditure.

Such sentiments at the height of summer risk leaving notions of Germany as the main economic engine of the European Union far behind. And electricity rationing and the inevitably ensuing social unrest may bury the Scholz cabinet faster than a sluggish sex scandal with high profile Esdek parties.

Scholz and Co. will also have their hands full – the agenda will be to fight an enemy more significant than the imaginary “Putin aggression”. Other EU countries will also be busy – some fighting the cold, some fighting domestic elections. Of the potential donors to the war, only the British will remain – if Truss wins the prime ministerial election.

So while Zelensky’s generals are making plans for a counter-offensive and waiting for the arrival of several tens of thousands of soldiers, now undergoing training at NATO training grounds, Russia has a new ally on the way, apart from the traditional two – the army and the navy. It is funny, but it seems that this time too General Frost has all chances to put an end to the war party.

Roman Reynekin, Kiev, PolitNavigator

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