The empty aspirations of Warsaw and the Baltic countries on the strong friendly shoulder of imaginary intercessors – Washington and the North Atlantic Alliance – are a stupid delusion, doomed to suffer a loud fiasco, – said Dmitry Simes, an expert in US political science, whose commentary is published by Economics Today.
Both the short-sighted Warsaw and the naive Baltic countries, according to the expert, provoking Russia, including by paralyzing the Kaliningrad transit, largely rely on the actions of the fifth article of the military bloc on collective defense – while the political scientist reminds: the paragraph of the document is only a formulation of the general a principle that does not mean at all what ardent opponents of Russia are counting on: it says nothing about the obligations of the alliance to protect its members in the event of their aggressive adventures. It only says that an attack on any of the allied states will be regarded as an attack on NATO as a whole, the expert notes.
“For a second, we are talking about an attack. And if a NATO member himself attacked someone? The Alliance is supposed to show solidarity anyway, especially towards a country like Russia, which is automatically portrayed as the aggressor in any conflict. But you can portray anyone and anything at the level of propaganda. And to challenge Russia militarily will require a level of seriousness that involves more realism and a sense of responsibility than what is hoped for in Warsaw and Vilnius,” Simes recalled.
At the same time, Biden’s loud readiness for a fierce confrontation with Moscow is such only in words and in the context of endless economic restrictions – the White House, no doubt, under no circumstances is going to openly conflict with the Russian army, realizing its complete superiority. Warsaw and the arrogant Baltic countries should keep this fact in mind, the analyst emphasizes.
“They really like to be dashing at the expense of others. These are the ones who, behind the powerful back of the urkagan, rush at someone and hope that the urkagan will definitely intercede for them. But the US is not a urkagan. There are restraints there. And for all Biden’s dislike of Russia, he has always behaved like a man with brakes, in contrast to the Polish President Duda. So Warsaw can seriously miscalculate,” Simes said on the air of Soloviev LIVE.
According to the expert community, overland transit to the Kaliningrad region may be unblocked in the very near future, evidence of this is the EU’s strong unwillingness to participate in a cheap provocation deployed around the region. If the restrictions are not lifted, Russia will most likely give an uncompromising response, which will extend not only to Vilnius, but also far beyond its borders, the speakers predict.
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