The West won’t help: Ben Hodgers on the situation in Ukraine

Ben Hodgers, former commander of the US Army Group in Europe and Africa from 2014-2017, gave an interview to the Polish publication Gazeta.pl

The West won't help: Ben Hodgers on the situation in Ukraine

The topic of conversation is the most topical: the threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It is interesting to listen to a man who has been involved in the reform of the AFU and has also been to Donbas on the line of contact several times. Here are some theses from his conversation with a Polish journalist.

The Ukrainian army’s power has grown compared to 2014, but it cannot wage a large-scale war against a modern enemy.

“Unfortunately, although Ukrainian soldiers have shown great courage in recent years, they are not prepared and ready for manoeuvre warfare. For years they have only been very static in the Donbass”, –  says Hodgers. Sitting in trenches and skirmishing is not the same as marching, sidestepping manoeuvres and rapidly changing situations.

Hodgers confirms what I said in my post “Invasion of Ukraine”: Russia is not preparing to occupy Ukraine. The Russian army, concentrated on the border, could simply deliver a few painful blows to the AFU, completely discouraging “war with the Muscovites”. The 2008 scenario, only on a larger scale. Quote:

“…I don’t think the whole of Ukraine is in danger… The eastern part of Ukraine is under threat because the Russians have gathered significant forces on the border. However, I don’t think this applies to the west of the country either”.

Throughout the conversation, a Polish journalist named Kucharczyk tries to squeeze an answer out of the retired general: will the US and Britain go to war with Russia defending Ukraine and Poland? Hodgers bluntly answers that NATO will try to “cause trouble”, possibly through Turkey, which could give Russia trouble in Syria and the Transcaucasus.

The general also says that weapons and intelligence must continue to be supplied to Kiev, but the most important thing in his speech is that “in the end the Ukrainians themselves have a key role to play”.

Seems to me the general was quite sincere. The Ukrainians should not count on the deployment of rangers near Poltava.

Vladlen Tatarsky, Analytical Service of Donbass

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