According to the political scientist, the “divorce” in relations between Ukraine and Germany dates back to 2014 and continues to this day, but it is quite debatable on whose side
Seven years ago, according to the expert, Ukraine succeeded in convincing the EU that Russia was to blame for the country’s misfortunes. Kiev’s inability to negotiate and the significance of the depth of internal crises were tactically glossed over at the time.
“Europe believed this and promised Ukraine worldwide support – up to and including money. It paid money – not just Europe, but Germany. The realisation that Russia was right from the beginning and Ukraine was incapable of negotiating came much later – several years later, after several blunders, after Ukraine aggressively failed to implement the Minsk agreements”, – Pavel Shipilin said.
Compliance with the Minsk agreements, according to the political scientist, was a chance for Ukraine to reaffirm its own position and consolidate the established relations with Germany. However, it did not use this chance and undermined its image in the eyes of the latter.
The political observer explained that after several disappointments, which Merkel faced, the attitude towards Ukraine as a territorial entity has naturally changed. However, since she has publicly supported this very part of Russia, she cannot now take back her words and announce to the world that Ukraine has actually deceived her personally.
Thus the expectations of Ukraine and Germany have collided, the realisation of which is currently very much in question on both sides. Seeing Kiev’s behaviour, the expert argues, Berlin has lost any desire to help it as before, yet Ukraine is still waiting for resources from the “German trough” to solve its own problems.
“Ukraine does not understand why it is not supported even though it was promised. Germany cannot support it because Ukraine is now completely different from the country it positioned itself as before the Maidan events. The public promises of support hang heavy weights on Merkel’s legs on the one hand, and on the other hand, she has already understood everything about Ukraine and behaves accordingly”, – the publicist explained.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to Kiev was announced on 22 August. There is a lot of speculation about the topics and the outcome of the conversation between the leaders, however, according to Pavlo Shipilin, there is no reason to talk about any concessions and advantages for Ukraine in its current situation. In particular, in the opinion of the political scientist, Kiev will not receive anything beyond what would be beneficial to Europe in the gas transit issue.
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“It is absolutely clear that Europe’s needs for gas will increase to such an extent that we cannot do without Ukrainian transit in the future: it will be, albeit minimal, within some reasonable limits. Today, of course, if we even calculate the capacity of all our pipelines and Europe’s demands, it is clear that we will soon be short of about 30-50 billion cubic metres. Ukraine will present it as another victory, and Germany will show it as fulfillment of promises it made and everybody will be satisfied. I do not exclude that we will talk about the Bulgarian Stream and the third Northern Stream and then, perhaps, one day we will be able to refuse from the Ukrainian transit”, – summed up the interlocutor of “People’s News”.