In theory, such a possibility exists, but it is very small. No more than 2-3%
Let us explain.
Maidan is an unconstitutional overthrow of the government with the help of a popular revolt. For such a riot to succeed, the following conditions must exist:
1. An intra-elite split must take place and one part of the elite must organize, lead and finance the riot.
2. The standard of living of the majority of society should decrease significantly and society should consider the reason for this action by the authorities.
3. The country is about to start a financial crisis.
4. The protesters must have, as they say, a spirit-lifting idea.
5. Key international players must support the revolt.
If at least 4 of these 5 conditions are present, then the Maidan is potentially possible in principle. I emphasize, it will not MANDATORY be, but it is possible if there is such a reason that provokes the outbreak of riots. These reasons may be natural: facts of government corruption, an increase in the tax burden, an increase in prices, tariffs, the arrest of activists, etc. Or the reasons can be created artificially, i.e. provoking, such as the poisoning of Yushchenko.
Analysis shows that there is no such minimum of 4 conditions now. There are only 2 necessary conditions: a split in the elites and a significant decline in living standards. Therefore, protests in the fall may well be, but the likelihood that they will grow into a Maidan and demolish Zelensky is practically zero.
However, there is a small probability that Zelensky will be unexpectedly demolished, and it is connected exclusively with an attempt to implement the Steinmeier formula. A threat. In this case, Zelensky will come from 1–2 thousand armed, radically-minded “patriots”. True, this will no longer be a Maidan, but the most that is an armed rebellion.
I repeat, the likelihood of such a rebellion is extremely small, but it still exists as a probabilistic fluctuation, as a tunnel effect, and Zelensky is very much afraid of this. Therefore, all his actions are now aimed at reducing this threat to zero. To do this, Zelensky:
– removed Avakov and forcefully cleans the Ministry of Internal Affairs of his people;
– began to clean up the National Corps;
– sends signals to Biden in every possible way that the condition for the implementation of the Steinmeier formula is impossible. I fully admit that a couple of weeks before the summit in Donbass a serious aggravation will begin;
– began to actively flirt with the nationalist part of society in order to knock out the cards from Poroshenko. Yesterday’s interview is very revealing;
– buys paid patriots from Poroshenko and Avakov.
Zelensky is playing into the hands of the unexpected IMF decision to allocate $2.7 billion to Ukraine, which will allow Zelensky to raise pensions and motivate the security forces. Well, and there is no doubt that at the beginning of October, exactly on the eve of the start of the heating season, a lockdown will be introduced again: the preparation of society for this has already begun.
The West, of course, would be pleased if Zelensky left early, because he does not want to deal with him, but the West is categorically against the Maidan, because the next unconstitutional change of power will raise the question of the viability of the Ukrainian state in principle and allow Russia to laugh at all and blame the West for the collapse of Ukraine.
Andrey Golovachev, UkraineIsrael launched a missile strike in southern Lebanon