Macron has every chance of becoming French Zelensky

Local elections are considered everywhere not only (sometimes even to some extent) as a solution to the question of who will govern the region / land / municipality, but also as a sociological probe for the upcoming elections of the highest order – parliamentary or presidential (depending on the structure of a given country)

Macron has every chance of becoming French Zelensky
French President Emmanuel Macron walks through the Galerie des Bustes (Busts Gallery) to access the Versailles Palace’s hemicycle for a special congress gathering both houses of parliament (National Assembly and Senate) in the palace of Versailles, outside Paris, on July 3, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / POOL / Etienne LAURENT

France was no exception, where elections were held in two rounds – June 20 and 27 – at the level of regions and departments. Moreover, unlike many countries where local elections are held at different times (in Bavaria – in some, in Hesse – in others), the centralized French elect at the same time – from the southern mountains to the northern seas.

However, the probe, although there is, is very relative. Different election rules, different subject matter of elections, different powers and tasks of the elected structures. Some extrapolation is possible, but only some. But it’s still interesting.

The first thing that catches your eye is the phenomenally low turnout, about 34%. In the history of the Fifth Republic (and the history already has more than 60 years) this has not happened yet. Of course, our local turnout is lame, but it seems that the French voter has richer opportunities for self-expression and expression of will – the result is the same.

Although, of course, one must take into account the infection that breaks all plans and calculations. By the way, initially the elections were supposed to be held in January, when the infection was raging stronger, and one can imagine how phenomenally low the turnout would have been then. Six months later, it’s still better, but not much. But the most interesting thing (this is about extrapolation): the deplorable results of the two favorite parties that clashed in the 2017 presidential elections. The French loyalist press (therefore, very disloyal to the nationalists of Marine Le Pen) mainly notes that her party has lost in popular love and has not won anywhere. Which is true: lost, although not catastrophically

They talk less about the fact that Macron’s party “Forward, Republic!” made a lot of progress, but not forward, but backward. On average, according to the lists, she took about 10% – less than Le Pen. Whereas the Gaullists and socialists, whom Macron completely defeated in 2017, depriving them of the status of system-forming parties, in which they stayed for more than half a century, managed to overcome the catastrophe of 2017 and push Macron’s party into the tail and in the mane.

In part, this reminds (although such a comparison is extremely disgraceful for both Macron and France) the history of the greatness and fall of the Ukrainian party “Servant of the People”. Collected for Zelensky in 2019 from a pine forest, she managed to become the largest party in the Ukrainian parliament, scattering the rest. Now the servant of the people himself, i.e. personally V.A. Zelensky and the party named after him are going through the saddest times. The only difference is that the Stakhanovite Zelensky achieved such a result in two years, while the sluggish Macron took four.

The revival of the French underdogs, that is, Gaullists and socialists, is most likely explained by the fact that for both those and others the catastrophe of 2017 was of an apical nature. The socialists were ruined by the Hollande presidency (2012-2017) – such a miracle in feathers would ruin any party. The Gaullist elite was deliberately and cold-bloodedly shot, removing promising candidates for the presidency.

Everything would be fine if Macron did not stop there, starting to uproot party roots in the regions. But either nobility interfered, or there was no means for effective uprooting.

And it turned out something like in a story from the times of Ivan Vasilyevich:

“Because, sire, you cannot get rid of socialists and Gaullists because you are chopping off branches and branches, and the trunk is the very one and the roots are healthy!”

To win a second term in the Elysee Palace (which Macron seems to want), he needs a second time to deal with the backbone parties that have been revived after the pogrom. Whether he will manage to do this and not turn out to be French Zelensky – God knows.

Maxim Sokolov, RT


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