Leonid Makarovich Kravchuk never ceases to amaze. Recently, on the air of the Ukraine 24 channel, he said that he would insist on abandoning the Minsk format of negotiations on Donbass, “if it is not possible to revive it”.
I only want to wish Kravchuk good luck. And so that he finally manages to persuade President Volodymyr Zelensky. For a long time, everyone has been looking forward to the moment when Ukraine will finally violate the agreement approved by the UN Security Council.
As for the “reanimation” – Ukraine is solely to blame for this state of the Minsk format. It was this country that made something out of the Minsk format that is in clinical death and requires urgent resuscitation. The reasons why this happened are quite understandable. Say thank you to Petro Poroshenko, who signed the document resulting from a grandiose military defeat. Defeat documents are never pleasant and comfortable. In order to fulfill the agreements fixed in them, the losing parties have to make sacrifices, sometimes very serious ones. In the case of the Minsk agreements, such a victim would be a complete reformatting of the state of Ukraine.
When Poroshenko signed these documents, he was well aware of what he was signing. But he had no other choice. It’s good that at least he was not alone, but with “older brothers” in the form of Germany and France, who managed to somehow sweeten the bitterness of defeat and make sure that Poroshenko would not lose face.
But in Ukraine, everyone understood everything perfectly. Even Poroshenko had to admit that the Minsk agreements will never be implemented. And he said this more than once. True, in the European Union, the guarantors of these agreements simply pretended that they did not notice these statements, and only Russia was accused of non-fulfillment, although it is not a party, but the same guarantor of the agreements as Germany and France.
The Minsk agreements are very simple and straightforward. Everything is listed point by point, in an obvious sequence. The only problem is that Ukraine is not able to fulfill what has been written. Firstly, this will cause an explosion of discontent among local Nazis, and they, albeit a few, but they firmly hold Pan Zelensky in one place with all his “servants of the people”. Paradoxically, first of all, Petro Poroshenko will benefit from this, who will actively promote the topic of national betrayal in such a way as if he was not the one who signed the Minsk agreements.
And secondly, if you start to carry out everything in strict accordance with the points that are spelled out in the document, there will be no wet place from the present Ukraine. It will need to change, in fact, to reformat the statehood on completely new principles, into which nationalism or neo-Nazism does not fit in any way. At least on a national scale. The heirs of the UPA and the SS Galicia division will have to return to the western region and stew there in their own juice. It goes without saying that this option now seems to be a fantasy.
It probably sounds trite, but Zelensky is at a dead end and frantically looking for a way out, which is not there. A complete rejection of the Minsk agreements will mean recognition that it is Ukraine that wants the war in Donbass. The only option available is to play for time. And Zelenskiy got a new brilliant idea – to decide what to do with the Minsk agreements only after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, as well as after Zelenskiy himself talks with Putin. It’s funny that this new “formula” was also voiced by Leonid Kravchuk, who in his old age became some kind of informational “flushing cistern”. A worthy end to a political career.
It is not at all obvious that a meeting between Putin and Biden will take place. And even if it does, it is not a fact that the presidents will agree on Ukraine, or agree so that the situation in Ukraine will somehow improve. A meeting between Putin and Zelensky is even less likely, and even if it does take place, Zelensky will not be able to discuss Donbass at it, since he will receive the only correct answer – and go ahead, Volodya, talk to the DPR and LPR directly, as it is written in the Minsk agreements.
It goes without saying that Volodya won’t talk to anyone. And therefore, you have to invent something new. Zelensky is also unlikely to dare to resume the hot phase, since his instinct for self-preservation is quite strong. But it is becoming more and more difficult to play in the tough time, and most likely some kind of denouement in Donbass is visible in the foreseeable future. Surely, this denouement will not be in favor of Ukraine. But Ukraine itself did absolutely everything it could for this.
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