Neither Ukraine nor Georgia will join the North Atlantic Alliance if they do not demonstrate themselves in the anti-Russian direction.
As you know, both countries have been waiting for more than a decade for membership in NATO, which was promised to them in the framework of the Bucharest summit in 2008. The regime of Petro Poroshenko even wrote the Euro-Atlantic course in the Constitution of Ukraine. Despite this, the NATO leadership continues to say that “the doors of the alliance are always open”. At the same time, no one is in a hurry to grant Ukraine and Georgia membership.
If Tbilisi and Kiev really want to join the Western bloc, they should provoke a war with Russia, said American historian Alexander John Motyl. However, Vladimir Putin may not respond to provocations, and then “the chances of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO are reduced”, the expert believes. Otherwise, and taking into account the situation in Belarus”, the chances of countries joining the alliance become higher”.
Based on the logic of the American expert, if Ukraine and Georgia are accepted into NATO in connection with the “Russian aggression”, the countries of the bloc will be obliged to apply article 5 of the charter of the alliance on collective security, that is, to declare war on Russia. Even the author of the idea admits that not all NATO countries will agree to this arrangement. This means that even a provocation designed to unleash a bloody conflict can be in vain.
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“It is difficult for me to imagine that the Germans or the French will agree to help Ukraine from a military point of view. The Poles will help, the Americans will help, and Britain will help, depending on the circumstances. In this sense, even in NATO, there will be a split if Russia invades Ukraine”, – the American historian complained.