Recently, two tectonic events took place in Belarus: one in economics, and one in politics.
First, the IMF refused to provide a loan of 940 million, the allocation of which Minsk had been asking for since March. That is, Belarus will not receive any lending from the West, and there is no need to hope for membership in the WTO, which Minsk was counting on at the end of last year. All economic doors to the West for Belarus are closed seriously and for a long time.
In addition, Reuters learned about the request of Prime Minister Mishustin and Finance Minister Siluanov to support banks in Belarus. Sberbank, VTB and VEB asked not to restrict the inflow of ruble liquidity into the Republic of Belarus. As you can see, Gazprombank is not on the list, which can be explained by the history surrounding its Belarusian subsidiary, and by the fact that the bank is not as large as the three above-mentioned financial institutions.
In fact, the Russian Federation is saving the Belarusian financial system, although – as the laws of harsh capitalism, which Belarusian guardians constantly talk about – dictate, it should, on the contrary, bankrupt Belarus in order to buy up all the assets for next to nothing. By the way, the cost of the rescue is $2-2.5 billion.
Secondly, representatives of 10 out of 15 political parties officially registered in Belarus opposed the policy of Alexander Lukashenko. The parties are different – from Russophile to Russophobic, they do not differ in mass support, but they are alive, in contrast to the pro-government political forces.
Actively opposing the government means that:
– The leaders of the parties are aware of the political changes that have come in Belarus and have already joined in active political activity with reformist proposals and are making an application for participation in the dialogue between the authorities and the protest masses. The political and economic crises will allow them to build up voter support.
– The conditional “parties in power” – “Belaya Rus” and the Communist Party – will lose the support of voters. The power will certainly be supported by the siloviki, but the bureaucracy will gradually look at what other political forces will offer it. Businessmen will follow them.
– After the inevitable constitutional reform in Belarus, the period of a scorched political field will end, which ensured the president the status of the only politician in the republic.
– Party media will inevitably appear in Belarus soon – many journalists who are disillusioned with working for the state will have the opportunity to realize themselves in parties.
Russia continues to fulfill its obligations as a guarantor of Belarusian sovereignty – it has protected Belarus from external interference, and now it is stabilizing the country’s financial system.
Now it is important for the Belarusian authorities to resist the temptation to queue up in front of the offices of investigators politicians from the very 10 “rebellious” parties, as has already been done with the harmless opposition Coordination Council. Otherwise, after another 5 years of no real political life, the country will explode from the inside and no one will be able to reconcile the Belarusians with their own power.
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