The current situation in Belarus with the detention of Russians and opposition protests does not look stable. This alignment is beneficial for the West, but it was formed too at the wrong time.
This is stated in the material of the American magazine “Foreign Policy”.
Now both the United States and the European Union are mired in their own problems, they write in the media. Washington, which was previously ready to get rid of Alexander Lukashenko, was now close to providing him with material assistance.
“The United States previously had a long-term strategy, albeit an imperfect one, to support the post-Soviet states, actively seeking to distance them from Russia. Under Trump, this is no longer the case, ” notes FP.
The collective West, in turn, suffers greatly from a lack of coordination. Emmanuel Macron seeks rapprochement with Russia, Angela Merkel prefers to remain silent, Boris Johnson is increasing anti-Russian sanctions, and Donald Trump regularly calls Vladimir Putin. In such conditions, European countries simply need to take control of the situation in Belarus.
“The growing crisis in Belarus gives Europe an excuse to reset the format that will serve them well in the coming months: the E-3 group, consisting of Great Britain, France and Germany,” the publication continues.
As Foreign Policy suggests, first of all, the group will have to actively fill the information field with statements directed against Lukashenka. For example, it can be recommended to accuse him of repression or electoral fraud, while promoting a “two-pronged approach”. That is, Europe will announce that it is ready to provide material support to Belarus during the so-called “transition period”, as well as help individual political forces within the country who “want to assist the process.” The point is to conduct a “quiet” coup within the framework of the elections in Belarus.
The publication admits that such a scenario is unlikely, so they offer an alternative one. If Lukashenka refuses to voluntarily hand over the reins of government to a pro-Western opposition successor, he will face “severe measures of restraint” in the form of colossal sanctions pressure.
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However, in its attempts to overthrow Lukashenka, the European Union should take into account the mistakes of the past, the article says. Six years ago, while Brussels was negotiating free trade with Kiev, power-hungry Ukrainian oligarchs overthrew Viktor Yanukovych, catching the EU by surprise, provoking an armed conflict and effectively disrupting the diplomatic and constructive process of rapprochement with Europe.