Poland begs trouble for itself in the form of American military base

Polish President Andrzej Duda flies to Washington to meet with Donald Trump. Duda hopes to discuss the prospects for military cooperation, including the potential relocation of the US troops from Germany to Poland. In such a straightforward way, the Polish president wants to pull up his falling rating a few days before the presidential election.

Poland begs trouble for itself in the form of American military base
President Donald Trump walks to the Oval Office with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the White House, Wednesday, June 12, 2019, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The preparation of the visit of Duda to the capital of the United States was first reported by Politico. According to its sources in the governments of both countries, the Polish president could become the first foreign leader that Trump will accept after the outbreak of the coronavirus.

“If it comes to an official invitation, then such a visit and such a meeting will take place. We are waiting today”, – the representative of the Office of the President of Poland, Krzysztof Szchersky, says.

That is, the Polish leader openly asked for a trip to Donald Trump.

The good news came on Wednesday, June 17th. The White House press service said that Duda will meet with Trump in a week.

“The visit will take place at a crucial moment for both the United States and Poland, as we rediscover our countries after months of fighting the coronavirus pandemic”, – the statement said. 

“As close partners and allies in NATO, the United States and Poland continue to expand cooperation on a wide range of issues. President Trump and President Duda will discuss further development of our cooperation in the field of defense, as well as trade, energy and telecommunications security”.

Thus, the Polish leader will really have to “rediscover America” again.

And it will happen on June 24 – on the very day when the Victory Parade, postponed due to the epidemic, will take place in Moscow. Whether this date was specially chosen, one can only guess, but the picture will be interesting. While Russian troops march along Red Square, the Polish president is discussing defense cooperation with Trump.

However, today Dude needs not only to annoy Moscow, but to strengthen its position in the domestic arena. The analytical portal RuBaltic.Ru wrote that in April, the ruling party, Law and Justice, insisted on holding the presidential election on time. Then the undisputed leader of the electoral race was Duda. But in two months his competitors, as they say, have built muscles.

Today, the re-election of the incumbent president no longer looks like an uncontested option for the development of events.

This is evidenced by the results of several sociological surveys. Kantar’s lab reports that in the first round, Duda gets the most votes, but in the second round he is bypassed by a candidate from the opposition platform Civil Platform Rafal Tshaskovsky. Maison & Partners also predicts Tshaskovsky’s victory with a 3% margin.

According to surveys of the IBRIS Institute, the incumbent president still wins with a minimum margin (48.8% versus 48%). Nevertheless, the rating of Duda for the week decreased slightly, and the rating of his main opponent increased. If this trend continues, then June 28 will become a black day for “Law and Justice”.

Traditionally, a few days before the “X-hour”, candidates are fighting for the undecided – those who decide where to put a tick in the ballot at the very last moment. The results of the presidential race in Poland will depend on them.

Duda had a unique opportunity to enlist the sympathy of this category of voters by begging Trump for a permanent US military base.

The Polish authorities enthusiastically accepted the news of a reduction in the size of the US army in Germany.

“If decisions are being made on the redeployment of part of the American troops from Germany, we are certainly in the game. We have always said that we are open to our allies and that Americans, as a rule, are welcome in our country. Therefore, our openness is such a peculiar kind of proposal”, – Duda said.

The White House has not yet answered this proposal. It is possible that all points over i will be placed on June 24. The reduction in the number of the US troops in Germany resurrects Duda’s dream of creating the so-called “Trump” – a military base for which Poland offered to pay $2 billion out of pocket.

“Of course, we will be talking with Mr. President Donald Trump about plans related to further American decisions, in which direction the units that President Trump spoke about a few days ago will be moved”, – the Polish leader assured.

Polish radio RMF FM claims that another important topic of negotiations will be energy: “The Americans will offer us to build a nuclear power plant. They are ready to provide technology, as well as offer a loan for the entire project”.

Poland really has plans for the development of nuclear energy. The Ministry of Energy plans to launch the first nuclear power plant by 2033 – American funding would have come in handy.

But the fundamental question for Duda will still be the question of “Fort Trump”. With such a trump card in the sleeve for the election results, he could not have worried. After all, the potential relocation of the US military from Germany to Poland signals not only the strengthening of relations between Warsaw and Washington.

“The creation of this base will allow us to bridge the gap between the“ old Alliance” and the “Second Class Alliance”(new members of the organization have been assigned to it for a long time)”, – says Polish General Roman Polko.

According to the newspaper Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, the prospects for creating “Trump” are negatively affected by Duda himself, who, in an effort to consolidate the conservative electorate, began to sharply run into the LGBT community.

It got to the point that the president of Poland described the ideology of people with non-traditional sexual orientation as more destructive than communism. He was praised for this in the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), but the Americans are clearly not thrilled. Especially the former US ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell – a man who plays an important role in the negotiations on the “Trump”. In combination, he is an open gay and anti-LGBT discrimination fighter.

On the other hand, such a trifle is unlikely to affect the course of history (the transfer of the American military from Germany to Poland could well be called a historical event).

The decision will ultimately be made by Trump, for whom Duda’s attacks on the LGBT community are not a problem. The only question is whether the owner of the White House is ready to upgrade the status of Poland to the “beloved wife of the Sultan”, exacerbating the already tense relations with the Germans.

Alexey Ilyashevich, Rubaltic.Ru. Translation

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