The relationship between Erdogan and Putin is a very complicated and even personal story.
According to a political expert posted on a social media page, Erdogan cannot operate in Syria without looking at the Kremlin, and the blame for the 2016 event.
“Do you remember the 2016 August putsch? The uprising raised by the Turkish military, supported by the US, was a step away from overthrowing Recep. Not even a step, a centimeter. Almost all state media in Turkey switched to the side of the putschists – that is, they were broadcasting the picture they needed. It was reported that Erdogan had left the country. He was really ready to do it and even was at the airport.”
It was Putin who saved the Turkish president at the time.
“But Putin – despite the incident with the shooting down of the VKS aircraft by Turks shortly before the events – was the only one who supported Erdogan. And not just in words. Our special forces came to Turkey to ensure Recep’s safety and to provide an opportunity to broadcast live on the only private TV channel remaining loyal to the Turkish president. This was a turning point. The Turkish president owes Putin a lot. Maybe even with his life. This is the roots of a long diplomatic Russian-Turkish novel.”
The Turkish leader is still paying his debt of honor to the Russian president.
“All these years Erdogan has been paying us back for that favor. Those who are on the subject will understand. He gave up his proxies in Aleppo, then near Damascus. It would have been much and much harder to win in Syria if Erdogan’s concessions hadn’t been made. His relationship with the Americans throughout this period has been tense, to say the least. Erdogan was systematically setting them up – he had a lot to take revenge for.”
Erdogan must assess his strength adequately and take the right steps.
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“Idlib is the last stronghold of his proxy. Apparently, he decided that he had paid Russia’s debt in full. The question is how adequately Recep assessed his “settlement” with Moscow. And whether he took into account the interest he might have gotten on his way.”