Among Polish politicians and experts, there are enough of those who dream of weakening or even dismembering Russia. However, the allies of Poland, the USA and the EU in the Russian direction are beginning to pursue a new course with Kiev . If Warsaw continues to live in the old paradigms, Ukraine could become a promising country for Americans and Europeans instead of Poland.
Among the various interpretations in the Polish editions of the results of the regional elections held in Russia, the following seemed interesting to us: “If in essence there will be less Lukashenko and more good old Surkov, then for us this is not good, but bad news … The appearance of Russian democracy poses a danger to us, since it usually lulls the vigilance of our Western allies, which, in a striking (though not surprising,) manner, suits the fiction described above. Since there is democracy in Russia, and the opposition has gained as many as 20 out of 45 seats in the Moscow City Duma, why strengthen the eastern flank of NATO. “
It is interesting that its author, a former employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, now a regular author of Polish publications, has repeatedly spoken about his skepticism towards geopolitics, but now he has built his opinion precisely in geopolitical categories. There is such a point of view in Poland that, whether Russia is authoritarian or democratic, the geographical location of the country on the Vistula makes it an inevitable competitor to Moscow, and there can only be one winner. As a rule, it is customary to mask this maxim by referring to the “common values” of the European and Euro-Atlantic worlds. The problem is that when these two worlds begin to change their position and values, Warsaw does not keep pace with them. Some Polish analysts believe that political Russophobia is a manifestation of Poland’s “romanticism” instead of “pragmatism”. However, in our opinion, there is not a drop of romanticism in this, but there is continuous pragmatism, according to which Russia must be defeated and dismembered. Or, at least, weakened enough to lose any influence in the post-Soviet space.
Despite the fact that Poland’s foreign policy often makes sharp turns and somersaults, depending on which party forms the government at the end of the election, there are constant constants in it. They were vividly demonstrated, firstly, with regard to Ukraine, when, after the February coup of 2014, the course of the then-ruling Civil Platform (RO), which was replaced by the antagonist of the Law and Justice Party (PiS) in 2015, has undergone major changes. Secondly, with regard to the USA, the Union of Left Democratic Forces (SLD) also relied on it, sending Polish soldiers to Iraq and allowing the CIA to organize a secret base in Poland where the Americans tortured prisoners, and RO, which invited the American military to the country on the Vistula as part of “strengthening the eastern flank of NATO.” And of course, PiS. At the same time, among Polish experts, the realization that its “great allies” are changing their direction, is slowly growing, while Warsaw continues to roll by inertia. To a dead end. Moreover, the reaction to what is happening can dramatically vary. Some say that Poland should change, while others insist that the world bend under them.
The second is especially evident in assessments of the new course of Kiev, which is currently trying to pursue President Vladimir Zelensky. Paradox: Warsaw has long and constantly talked about the need to establish peace in Ukraine, but when Zelensky began to take cautious steps in this direction, this provoked a critical reaction from the Polish Polish scholars. They are dissatisfied with everything that at least somehow disrupts relations between Kiev and Moscow, including the exchange of prisoners. However, for Poland such a game is dangerous. And not only from the point of view of the reaction of Russia. As one of the active conductors of political Russophobia notes with great regret, now “the interests of Zelensky and some Western leaders (primarily French President Emmanuel Macron — SS) have met, because over time, US President Donald Trump realized that the key to “warming and even a new reset of relations with Russia lies in Kiev.” But then it turns out that the United States and the European Union can rely on Ukraine instead of Poland. First of all, the EU, since Poland, together with Ukraine and Romania, controls land communications from Asia to Europe.
If Warsaw continues to focus on Washington and hinder the detente of relations with Moscow, there will be nothing left for the European to do but to encourage Ukrainian-Russian relations, seeing in Ukraine a promising transit channel. How will Poland behave in this situation? Of course, since 2015, representatives of the ruling party have talked a lot about evil and stupid things about Russia. At the same time, according to our observations, the chairman of Law and Justice, Yaroslav Kaczynski, never burned bridges, and his judgments were moderate. Recall that in June of this year on Radio Wnet, speaking about the future dialogue between Poland and Russia, he said: “There must be a decision by Russia to change attitudes towards Poland. I’m talking about a strategic decision, and not about various tactical games – I’m afraid this can cause a very serious problem … If I turn out to be wrong, I will be very happy because it is not in our interests to enter into a heated debate with Russia … But the other side, Apparently, I’m not used to the fact that there is a subjective state that can play a role in Central Europe, and even a very important role in Central Europe. And in this sense, it is competitive with Russia. ”
With all the reservations made by Kaczynski, this is at least some kind of platform with which you can start a conversation. The problem is that although the head of PiS tightly controls the party, he is not a dictator or monarch who is able to order to do anything. In the meantime, in the Warsaw salon supporters of dialogue with Moscow are by no means in the majority, rather the opposite. Therefore, apparently, Poland will be at the tail of the new US and EU course in the Russian direction, although it still has chances to get into the middle or even the beginning of the composition.
Stanislav Stremidlovsky, IA REGNUM