British voters are drifting away from the two legacy establishment parties because divisions over Brexit, the economy, and social issues are not being answered by Labour and the Conservatives, a new analysis of voting trends has found.
The two main political parties which have enjoyed a stranglehold in an effective two-party system for a century of British politics are seeing their voters increasingly dissatisfied and willing to vote for new, smaller parties.
Both Labour and the Conservative parties are losing and will continue to lose voters to Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party over the failure to deliver Brexit in time, and migration to the new ultra-globalist, pro-European Union Change UK (CUK) party is also likely to feature.
The new figures, which claim a 41-seat loss for the Conservatives in a snap election and the possibility of a Labour-SNP government comes from an analysis of recent polling by Electoral Calculus. Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus said of the figures in the Daily Telegraph Friday:
The two big parties are also losing core supporters to other Brexit-defined parties. Labour supporters are defecting to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Change UK, attracted by their stronger Remain stance. And mainstream Conservative voters are switching to Brexit-based parties, such as UKIP, in frustration at the failure to leave the EU on time.
This tribal analysis suggests that Nigel Farage’s Brexit party should target the “working class nationalists” with an economically soft-left and pro-Brexit position. This could create a grouping of around a quarter of voters.
For Change UK the possible prizes are the Progressive and [kind young capitalist] tribes, which make up a third of voters. They would be attracted by an economically soft-right position plus a soft Brexit and social liberalism.
The group claims their analysis features seat-by-seat breakdowns of voting intention, rather than relying on a uniform national swing, and point to the results of the past three general elections where their seat predictions have come closer to the results than traditional pollsters.
Baxter claimed that “The two big parties have never been in such jeopardy”, but the new parties also had to work hard to maximise their appeal to the disparate tribes of voters who have been increasingly abandoned by the legacy parties.
The figures come after a week of UK political polling as the nation prepares for both local, and European Union elections in May. Breitbart London reported Wednesday on the shock result that the Brexit Party had leapfrogged both Labour and the Conservatives to place first in a nationwide poll.
If the poll was borne out in the EU elections in May, the outcome for the Conservative party would be their worst in history for a national vote going back to the foundation of the party in 1834.France: Yellow Vest leader criticises Notre Dame fire pledges