Ukraine is less and less like a sovereign state, but more and more like a chessboard, where two players are just beginning to set up pieces for the decisive game.
In this whole situation, with the Kerch provocation and the military situation that followed it, Petro Poroshenko and his retinue played the most pitiful role. Needless to say, the guarantor is trying to save his own skin before the upcoming elections, because the overseas bosses, apparently, haven’t intended to postpone them yet. Until then, Poroshenko has yet to work in the name of “democracy.”
A few days after the launch of this campaign, some of the details that showed up allow us to look at the picture from the side. First of all, from the very beginning it became clear that the imposition of martial law does not have any logical reasoning for Ukraine. No one was going to attack her, and the situation has not changed. Probably, Kiev and its “partners” hoped that the Sunday provocation should have ended more bloody, but did not work out. With all this, something does not fit. Why, for example, such violent militarization, if the martial law is over in a month? We will answer this later.
Finally, there appeared quite curious information that the United States plans to locate its military base in the “Square” open spaces, which Kiev allegedly asks Washington, but so far behind the scenes. Naturally, we must understand that this is not about requests. Kiev has long been put in such matters before the fact. Well, such a seemingly unforgivable leak in the media allowed to prepare the ground. But here the question arises. How exactly is Washington going to justify his military presence?
And the answer, in fact, lies in the very martial law. Yes, it is indicative that they “bargained” for a month, but who prevents to extend it for another one or two, even for half a year. In fact, for this Poroshenko has all the resources, and if he wants to put pressure on the parliament, he will do it.
As for the election. Here everything is more complicated. Probably, those did not postpone, so as not to induce even more noise. But it can still change. It was assumed that Poroshenko’s place would not be taken by the pro-Russian or pro-Western candidate, but by the one who would be a mediator in a kind of “bidding” between Washington and Moscow. That’s just the West decided to start these trades a little earlier.
So, the position of the West is clear. He needs a full-fledged military base in Ukraine. Further prospects for this is not difficult to calculate, but let us dwell on this. For Moscow, this option, of course, is unfavorable, but the situation has long gone a long way. There is no point in talking about Ukraine’s opinion at all. She has long deprived herself of the title of a subject in world politics.
Looking at all this, we can say that this picture lacks only one element – the tacit negotiations between Russia and the United States. Both sides were in a kind of dead end. Expanding the military base now means receiving a backlash from Moscow, it may well entail an immediate armed conflict, but the chessboard is still half empty. And negotiations allow to solve these issues. The parties have only come together in price.
In practice, the situation will be as follows. Kerch provocation will not be the last. The new antics of Kiev will allow again to extend martial law, perhaps even with the cancellation of the elections. The Kremlin made a big bet on Poroshenko’s successor in terms of resolving the conflict in the Donbas, which means the plan will be foiled. Moreover, it is impossible to exclude escalations in order to achieve one thing – recognition of the republics by the Russian Federation, and she really recognizes them, standing up for protection. The United States will regard this step as another “aggression”. In response, the Pentagon will deploy a military contingent to Ukraine, placing a long-awaited base there. That’s when all the figures will be placed. So the deciding game will begin.