Historically, the revolution implies breaking the old foundations at the root, the replacement of outdated principles for the sake of the state’s further development. Was there such a “velvet revolution” that Pashinyan broke out in Armenia and what did happen behind the scenes of this “coup d’état”?
Of course, any revolution needs a stimulus, a spark that will push the people to action. For Armenians, it was a good indignation that Serzh Sargsyan violated his word not to claim the post of head of the country’s government after the constitutional reform. After a detailed study of this factor by the initiators of the revolution, protests were already being fought not just against Sargsyan, but in the name of a democratic system.
But did Sargsyan himself know what is going on? After all, the people’s questioned the authority, and, consequently, his claims to power would naturally cause unrest in the country. For sure, he took into account this fact in his political game, as he was taken into account by populist Nikol Pashinyan, who entered the arena in time and got everything he could dream about without a fight.It’s hard not to notice that Sargsyan actually played up to Pashinyan in what was later called a “velvet revolution”.
But was this revolution? After all, if we analyze the situation, we can see a number of elements in the form of provocation, reaction to it, the final result and the transfer of power, the process of which remained “in the shadows.”
As a result, the government has been rotated, but no significant changes are being made in the country. Having seated himself in the prime minister’s chair, Pashinyan sharply changed his position regarding the protests, although he continued to press on the vector of “fighting corruption”, which became his slogan during the spring “uprisings”. But it’s hard not to notice that the anti-corruption policy of the new head of government is more like “witch hunt”, which serves to relieve him of undesirables. The arrests of politicians, “petty” and overt corruptionists do not change the situation in the country. At the same time, Serge Sarsyan, the main antagonist of the “revolution” continues to live quietly, which is strange, considering how many claims were to him a few months ago.
Experts note that the “new Armenia” is already taking action in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to analysts, Armenia may well declare recognition of the region’s independence, removing the burden of responsibility for further negotiations. Moreover, the way out of the territorial dispute opens the way for the country to the North Atlantic alliance, which fully corresponds to the pro-Western policy of Nikol Pashinyan. NATO, in turn, is also interested in such cooperation, which will open a bridgehead for the alliance to confront with Iran.
Washington this time left a contigency plan, unlike in Ukraine. This can explain why Sargsyan was never charged, he was not arrested or expelled from the country. So, in case of a failure of the operation, Serzh Sargsyan will easily be able to come into power again, continuing to play a double game.