Last year after the German elections I penned a piece saying, “The End of The Merkel is Nigh.” Merkel’s early failures at putting a coalition together drove that conclusion.
Back then I pegged CSU leader and former Governor of Bavaria, Horst Seehofer, as the pivotal figure in potentially seeing Germans go back to the polls if he stood up to Merkel.
But, ultimately, if Merkel’s CDU/CSU coalition party is to stay together, and there’s no guarantee of that anymore, it will have to dump Merkel herself if it wants to survive as a voting bloc.
Moreover, the CSU, led by Bavarian Governor Horst Seehofer, could break off from the CDU making any kind of coalition building impossible without a re-vote.
Seehofer eventually agreed to a deal with the Social Democrats, granting him the power of Interior Minister. This gives him control over immigration policy. The same power that Lega leader Matteo Salvini is now wielding against Merkel with almost gleeful abandon on behalf of Italians.
So, it is no surprise to me that Seehofer is leading the charge against Merkel’s continued insistence, at the behest of her globalist backers, of forced immigration for the EU and Germany, despite a clear mandate from voters to the contrary.
The knives are coming out in Germany against Merkel and it is only the pro-EU Social Democrats who are coming to her defense. But, their relationship with Merkel is what has them in the depressed position they are. German voters roundly rejected the SPD in 2017, including in their normal stronghold of Rhineland-Westphalia, as they saw Merkel’s EU ambitions and ties to the U.S. as a betrayal.
Everywhere across Germany citizens are angry about Merkel’s letting more than one million people into the country with no desire to integrate into German society. Crime is up, budgets are strained and communities are being uprooted.
This is for Merkel’s need to be seen as a benevolent dictator over the EU after she shook down Greece, mafia-style, over debt relief in 2015.
Merkel’s losses have been Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) gain. In fact, all the minor parties have benefited. And the problem now is there is no clear support for any party nationwide.
A weakened SPD leadership initially rejected another grand coalition to salvage its reputation with voters and rebuild the party. But it eventually caved to the reality of it being the only way for Merkel to form a government.
And as far as Brussels was concerned there was no other option allowed. President Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, made that clear. In the same way that Italian President Sergio Mattarella tried to manipulate all phases of the Italian election to get Brussels’ desired outcome.
The problem is that in order to get that coalition formed, a weakened Merkel had to give major concessions to her sister party the CSU and Seehofer. Merkel herself stands for nothing in particular other than the EU itself.
Her positions shift with the winds making her the ultimate political cockroach, avoiding the light to maintain power. But, the CSU is far more conservative overall in its policy. It stands for something, and that means more than Merkel.
And even it is feeling the burn from its association with her. The CSU is now staring at a loss of majority control in Bavaria for the first time in decades, polling 46% now as AfD has risen to double digit support.
So, Seehofer has to break with Merkel or lose his standing as leader of the CSU. But if he does that she will likely dismiss him as Interior Minister.
But doing that only forestalls the inevitable, a collapse of her coalition. Because that will be taken by German voters as a clear sign of her unwillingness to alter a wildly unpopular policy.
Immigration is not simply a political asset to be horse-traded by leaders in the legislature. Someone should teach Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer this before the Democratic Party goes the way of the dodo.
It cuts too deeply into people’s personal identity and their sense of community and culture. Like it or not, people tend to seek out people like them.
We are hard-wired for this. And the cultural Marxists pushing for George Soros’ vision of the Open Society are bumping up against one of the most basic of human biases and survival instincts. Demonizing and dehumanizing people for political gain is not a path of societal cohesion but rather violence and civil war.
Cultural change comes slowly if at all, depending on the will of the people. Defending the culture is one of the most basic reasons people put up with government ineptitude in the first place.
Betraying that trust is what destroys governments and the powers pushing quislings like Merkel to continue that betrayal regardless of public sentiment are pushing this situation to a crisis point all across the West.
The leadership in Europe and the U.S. have built legal constructs to subvert that mandate while monopolizing the media to convince people this is the right path for their future.
Those who stand up for the shared values that make a country a country, no matter how culturally diverse internally, have seen huge electoral victories, while those that cling to the Utopian fantasy of the new Soviet man edicts of the finger-wagging elites and Progressives continue to lose not only power but legitimacy.
If Merkel wants to stay in power to continue subverting the cause of the people to determine their own future she is going to have to compromise on immigration today. I have no doubt she will find a path to remain in power. It is her singular skill as a politician.
But that doesn’t mean the situation in Germany gets any easier. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign vita trade tariffs and sanctions is handing Merkel the ammunition she needs to shore up her support by rallying around Trump’s brazen attacks on German sovereignty and its cultural identity.
While I agree with Trump’s casting Germany as the rentier class of the EU, siphoning off unearned wealth from the rest of the continent via a horribly designed and implemented currency union, it doesn’t change the fact that he’s insulting German work ethic and pride in doing so.
So, as I’ve been saying since the Italians seated an antagonistic government, Merkel has a path to gain serious political capital over the issue of Crimea and Russian sanctions. First by standing up to Trump and issuing tariffs on U.S. products and then by standing aside as Italy blows up the sanctions regime when it comes up for reauthorization.
Russia is enjoying the opening of the World Cup and the good will it engenders across Europe. There couldn’t be a better time for this to occur. The political optics are excellent, and Merkel’s troubles are escalating quickly.
She better seize the moment or watch it pass her by.