Recently, within the framework of the European Commission, the first public meeting of the newly established informal working group of representatives of the EU countries was held with the involvement of special services and defense ministries on the future organization of Ukraine.
The working group was established with the aim of elaborating a medium-term strategy (2-3 years) of the European Union regarding the future structure of Ukraine. The basis for this approach was the fact that Russia and the United States are conducting backstage negotiations on Ukraine at the Surkov-Volker level and in fact suspended the European Union from solving the Ukrainian problem, while the Minsk-2 format has been frozen before the decision-making on the Moscow-Washington line.
The following circumstances also became the basis for considering this issue.
Firstly, an understanding of the inability to preserve a unitary Ukraine with the old Constitution within the borders that it inherited from the collapse of the USSR.
Secondly, the impossibility of returning Donbass to the political decision-making mechanism of Kiev.
Thirdly, Warsaw’s willingness, after the adopted law on combating Bandera ideology, to take other measures to combat the followers of the ideology of the OUN-UPA, including the beginning of legalization the concept of “Eastern Malopolska”.
Fourth, Hungary’s concentration of the necessary forces and assets on the border with Ukraine to take the entire territory of Transcarpathia under control at the first opportunity. In addition, an analysis of Budapest’s policy says that the public opinion of the country is already ready for the return of this eastern region.
As one of the main scenarios for the development of events at the meeting of the working group, the scenario of the beginning of the humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine was examined due to corruption of the authorities and their inability to cope with the functions of state administration. It is recognized that in this case, the introduction of peacekeeping contingents is acceptable to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine. However, this requires the definition of zones of delineation of their activities. This issue will be considered at subsequent meetings.