According to the BVA survey, Fillon would be able to move on to the second tour in three scenarios with different opponents from the left, former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, former Industrial Renewal Minister Arnaud Montebourg, or Valls flanked by two other left candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Francois Bayrou.

 

Fillon

 

The poll results indicated that far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen would receive between 24 and 26 percent of the votes in the first tour, which, while less than her October figures of 27.5 to 29 percent, would still qualify her for the second tour.

 

The survey showed that the left remained divided between former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron, who could hope for 14 percent in the first tour, Valls and Jean-Luc Melenchon from the Left Party, who could gain 13 percent of the votes each, which would not allow any of the three move forward.

 

According to the poll, if Macron or Bayrou withdrew from the race, Valls would have a better chance at consolidating the left votes, but even in this case he would end up with about 20 percent of the votes and behind Le Pen and Fillon.

 

The poll was conducted on December 2-4.