The United States Congress unanimously voted to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons, which people have been asking for. If the Senate passes the law and the American President signs it, it will become much easier for Ukrainians to kill people.
Some people ask me why I write about Ukraine so often, as if we don’t have enough problems in Russia. But Ukraine is Russia’s main problem, causing many of our domestic difficulties.
We are obviously interested in the possibility that Kiev could use American lethal weapons, and we can assume they will be aimed at the Donbass, bordering the Russian Rostov Region, or even at Russia itself. That’s why I’m so interested in what Ukraine is up to.
Today’s Ukraine looks much like Georgia before 2008. Compare the rhetoric of the post-Maidan government to the speeches of Georgian ministers and the then president. Ukrainian officers, having trained in NATO countries, train army buddies on the Yavorivsky range near Lvov. Ukraine has its own Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia – the DNR and LNR, which it will attack under cover of night.
In general, “America is with us”, according to a Ukrainian officer at the beginning of the events in Crimea in 2014 — after which the peninsula was smoothly reattached to Russia.
America was with Georgia as well, and “family ties” were formed immediately. One senator even felt like a Georgian, singing “Suliko” in a soft voice over the phone. Having sized up the situation, the Sixth Fleet stayed in the Mediterranean.
Recently I was asked what would happen to Ukraine in the near future. Respected analysts predict an early collapse, a new Maidan in which aggressive Banderovites will be hanged. I think that until the “mother” is stung,–the army will be kept afloat as will a few people at the top and prosperous soldiers and officers.
As for Mother Ukraine herself, she will slowly dissolve. People will get used to living in survival mode, farming and gathering, some will plunder, others will get seasonal work in Russia and Poland. Because no one ever focused on improving their standards of living (after all, the elite has to survive, too).
One small detail: Americans will not support the Ukrainian Army if it fails to launch a war. So today it’s saving its strength. Sooner or later, it will attack someone, just as Georgian troops attacks of the sleeping Tskhinvali.
We’re likely to have to get involved in a local war again, against Poroshenko and his satraps. Of course, Ukraine, with a 40-million population, is not Georgia with its 4 million. But Russia’s Army in 2016 differs from that of Russia in 2008. Peace-enforcement is likely to last longer than five days. But there will be no occupation, Ukrainians shouldn’t expect such a happy outcome.
Infrastructure (roads, bridges, air strips) will be ruined. Weapons depots and plants, combat equipment, including aircraft, communication assets, missile defense systems, and, of course, staff offices will be destroyed. As in Georgia, Russia will try to minimize causalities.
Will the sane Ukrainian forces seize the moment? Will they be able to establish order at home, if the government is left defenseless? It will depend on sane Ukrainian forces, if there are any.
When people asked me what would happen to Ukraine, I asked them if they know the last name of the Georgian president, without looking it up in Wikipedia. I don’t remember it either – but that doesn’t matter. Georgia no longer poses any danger to Russia, so neither the media nor the blogosphere write about it. No one is interested in this independent country in the Caucasus Region, that produces wine and mineral water.
Ukraine will stop being of interest to me when I am no longer able to remember the name of its president.