ISIS in Europe, the future of Ukraine and the migrant crisis in the interview with Mateusz Piskorski, PhD in political science and a co-founder of the European Centre for Geopolitical Analysis.
How would you assess the current situation in Ukraine considering what Yulia Tymoshenko said recently. She believes that if nothing changes, the current government may be overthrown by the very citizens of Ukraine. I need to remind that uncontrollable access to weapons in Ukraine poses a real threat in this respect.
Currently Ukraine cannot be treated in terms of the State but only as an area that is controlled by organized crime groups. It is clearly seen that even in the western part of Ukraine local governments are financed by oligarchs who are in control of the situation, not the police. Currently Ukraine does not meet the definition of the State.
Contrary to Ukraine, in no other country in Europe can you find such a huge number of firearms available on the so-called ‘black’ market. We are dealing with the illicit arms trafficking and the situation in which we do not know the destination of heavy weapons including rocket launchers being lost by military units during the so-called Euro – Maidan when the protesters occupied the offices of the Ministry of the Interior. The Right Sector and other organizations operating in Ukraine refuse to return the weapons – that is why I assume that these weapons are still on the open market.
They either trade them or which is even worse the arms might be in the hands of extremist groups. It goes without saying that in case of severe social frictions, e.g. when that safety valve like the mass emigration of Ukrainians for socio – economic reasons would come to an end, then this situation may lead to armed coup attempts. It can’t be entirely excluded. If Ms Yulia Tymoshenko manages to return to politics and form her own government, she may share the same fate and nobody will be able to control that. This is the tragedy of Ukraine, and this is where the question arises: what ‘after’ Ukraine?
We are provided with more and more information about the activities of the Islamic State which is planning attacks in Europe. Do you think that in this respect the situation in Ukraine is under control?
When I was recently in Crimea talking with local Crimean Tatars I learned that among aggressive militia in Ukraine there are also Islamists including those who fought in the Middle East and some of them had connections with the Islamic State. These people might try to cross the Polish-Ukrainian border seeing its permeability and enter the EU.
There is for example the Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion which presently operates on the territory of Ukraine. It is deployed in Mariupol. Being recently in Donetsk the local military Counterintelligence, collecting information regarding the presence of mercenaries in Ukrainian military units, gave me the confirmation that the Islamic State militants operated just in the ranks of the Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion.
There is also Lenur Islyamov, the Crimean Tatar who altogether with his armed unit recently organized the energy blockade of Crimea. Islyamov is supported by the leader of the Crimean Tatars, Mustafa Dzhemilyev. They are responsible for creating a unit financed by Turkey within the framework of the official Ukrainian National Guard – allegedly a battalion of Crimean Tatars, which in fact is a unit comprising in its ranks very different representatives of the Muslim world including Wahhabi and people associated with the structures of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State.
It is sufficient that they are willing to fight against Russia to be instantly treated in Ukraine as allies including even terrorist groups pretending to be legally operating units having actually a relationship with the Islamic State.
These people pose a threat to the very population of Ukraine because when the conflict in Ukraine is over, they may also carry out terrorist activities within the borders of Ukraine. Despite this, the Ukrainian authorities either silence their presence on the Ukrainian territory or even give them support like e.g. Lenur Islyamov.
Now I am convinced that on the EU territory among this wave of refugees there are also the representatives of the Islamic State. ISIS is trying to take over the trade and distribution of drugs in Europe, which is also silenced by the mainstream media. Drug-trafficking is one of the main sources of their livelihood. They are trying hard to take over the ‘business’ from Albanians and the Kosovo mafia, which so far has operated under the American umbrella, the U.S. Bondsteel base in Kosovo. These days, the business of drug trafficking gets into the hands of the Islamic State which has a well-developed structure with its representatives already present in Western Europe.
Some time ago Poland made a reprehensible mistake giving refuge to a large group of Chechen fighters, also to those with terrorist and warfare experience. I do not rule out the eventuality of the Polish – Ukrainian border becoming the entry gate for the influx of migrants planning terrorist attacks on the European Union territory.